Thursday, January 03, 2008

The Campaign Officially Begins

And the winners in Iowa are...



What will this mean for the next political year?

4 comments:

Greg said...

Wow, I just can't get enough of this stuff... and to think, the next five days could be even more fun with debates on Saturday and New Hampshire voting Tuesday. =)

BTW, I thought both Obama and Huckabee gave great victory speeches. Different styles, but very effective nonetheless.

Robby said...

There weren't really any surprises and the results were very close to what polls were showing. For that reason I still think Guiliani (McCain slightly behind him) and Clinton are the favorites to be nominated as they are the favorites in the polls. It will be very interesting to see how polls change after these results. Unless there's a drastic change in polling McCain should win New Hampshire and the GOP nomination will be up in the air.

The good news for Ron Paul, the only candidate on either side I would consider voting for, is that he slightly outperformed his polling and Thompson had decent enough results that he might stay in the race past Feb 5. The bad news is his results didn't really do much to help his campaign and the chance of taking 3rd in Iowa (only 3% away) and creating some buzz is gone. A really strong showing in New Hampshire or in both Nevada and SC is his only shot now.

Westy said...

...the only candidate on either side I would consider voting for...
You wouldn't vote?

I expect to see national polls swing based on these results. While winning Iowa doesn't necessarily mean much in the long run, the publicity gained by these candidates may improve peoples' perceptions of their viability.

Robby said...

You wouldn't vote?

The odds my vote would be the deciding vote is about as likely as winning the lottery. I probably will vote as it is less than a block away and takes < 10 minutes but if I had to make any effort I wouldn't. Unless it was an extremely close election involving candidates I had a strong opinion about which this one likely will not be. It looks like I will just be voting for a slightly lesser evil (probably Obama).


Regarding post-Iowa movements, it looks like Obama is now a decent favorite to win the nomination - I'd say about 60%, but Hillary has a ton of money. On the republican side it looks like McCain, surprisingly, has taken a lot of momentum from both Romney and Guiliani and is the current favorite but nobody has more than a 35-40% chance on the republican side.